All Rights Reserved. Jaimovich, Rebelo, Wong, and Zhang study the role that increases in the quality of the goods consumed ("trading up") might have played in the rise of the skill premium that occurred in the last four decades. Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve Michael McLeay, Silvana Tenreyro. CFM Discussion Paper Series (CFM-DP2018-15). Series: Macroeconomics Annual The thirty-fourth edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2014. The researchers discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in U.S. data. D Aikman, AG Haldane, M Hinterschweiger, S Kapadia. M McLeay, S Tenreyro. 34300 Points . Chapter in NBER book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34 (2020), Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors (p. 199 - 255) Conference held April 11-12, 2019 Published in March 2020 by University of Chicago Press M McLeay, A Radia, R Thomas. “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,” with M. McLeay (2020). Economics Letters 112 (2), 220-222, 2011. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25820, which may be a more recent version. McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve. We use a standard conceptual framework (Clarida et al.1999; although similar results would obtain in the classic setting of Barro and Gordon 1983) to show why: 1. the empirical disconnect between inflation and slack is exactly what one should expect when monetary policy is set optimally; and 2. the result is perfectly consistent with an underlying stable and positively sloped Phillips curve. "Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies," Journal of International Economics , . 12. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25892, which may be a more recent version. with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A ... Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with Thomas Drechsel: w23716. ISSN 0889-3365 Sterk, Vincent and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) The transmission of monetary policy through redistributions and durable purchases. E-ISSN: 1537-2642 The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy. Debortoli, Galí, and Gambetti evaluate that hypothesis for the recent ZLB episode experienced by the U.S. economy (2009Q1-2015Q4). NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. M Koren, S Tenreyro. Comment on ‘Accounting for Factorless Income,’ by Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, 33, pp. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 34 (1). 758: 2002: Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. ISSN 0889-3365 Abel, Will, Tenreyro, Silvana and Thwaites, Gregory (2018) Monopsony in the UK. Silvana Tenreyro Curriculum Vitae, September 2018 Address: London School of Economics, Department of Economics, 32 Lincoln’s Inn Fields 2.19. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25839, which may be a more recent version. 34. Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro () . In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25931, which may be a more recent version. 267–279. Tel. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. London, WC2A 3PH. Michael McLeay Bank of England Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH. 61: 2020: El dinero en la economía moderna: una introducción. Welfare losses, measured a one-time asset compensation are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Since the late 1990's, U.S. industries have become more concentrated and more profitable, while non residential business investment has been weak relative to fundamentals. Philippon and Gutiérrez develop a simple model to differentiate four prominent explanations: decreasing domestic competition (DDC), increases in the efficient scale of operation (EFS), the rise of intangible assets (INTAN), and globalization (GLOBAL). 199 - 255. Powell, J. H. (2019): “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, Speech delivered at the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 25892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. References listed on IDEAS. NBER macroeconomics annual 17, 301-345, 2002. 1 McLeay and Tenreyro’s argument: the identification problem The Phillips curve is a supply curve. as Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. HOME PAGE. Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro; Michael McLeay. The researchers highlight that some widely used measures of mark-ups and productivity divergence are prone to measurement error, and therefore provide misleading evidence on aggregate trends. The thirty-fourth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to … Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, Comment on "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve". 708: 2011: Volatility and development. 1 See McLeay, M. and Tenreyro, S. (2019), "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve", NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34 and Tenreyro, S. (2018), “Models in macroeconomics”, speech at the University of Surrey, Guildford. This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17 Volume Author/Editor: Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, editors Volume Publisher: MIT Press Volume ISBN: 0-262-07246-7 Volume URL: Conference Date: April 5-6, 2002 Publication Date: January 2003 Title: Optimal Currency Areas Author: … Michael McLeay † Silvana Tenreyro ‡ June 2019 Abstract Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual The thirty-fourth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2014. Competition between local governments limits the predatory effects of special deals. Blanchard O. e Summers LH (a cura di), Evolution or Revolution, 143-194, … You may be able to download this chapter for free via the Document Object Identifier. 199 - 255. McLeay, M and S Tenreyro (2019), “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, Vol. In this paper we explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. It embeds the supply side of the economy, and it captures how in the aggregate, when greater pressure is put on the most important factor of production (labor), firms will want to set higher prices. The reason is simple: If monetary policy is set with the goal of minimizing welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. The researchers can reconcile their empirical findings with the predictions of a simple New Keynesian model under the assumption of a shadow interest rate rule. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), pages 199-255. Centre For Macroeconomics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. From 1984 to 2001, the corresponding standard deviation was 1.6%. Revista de Economía Institucional 17 (33), 333-353, 2015. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 199-255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2018. loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … April 11-12, 2019 Share. The zero lower bound (ZLB) irrelevance hypothesis implies that the economy's performance is not affected by a binding ZLB constraint. Bank of England. Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. All Rights Reserved. Specifically, in our paper the Philli… Published: Thomas Drechsel & Silvana Tenreyro, 2017. June 2017: … ISSN 0889-3365 Monograph. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " From 1960 to 1983, the standard deviation of annual growth rates in real GDP in the United States was 2.7%. The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. Juan Carlos Berganza, Fructuoso Borrallo, Pedro del Río, Determinants and Implications of Low Global Inflation Rates, International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, 10.1007/978-3-319-79075-6_10, (183-216), (2018). Older Notes and Working Papers. 34. ... leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. 02079556018; E-mail: Main Academic Positions Professor, London School of Economics 2012- Associate Professor (Reader), London School of Economics 2008-2012 Assistant Professor (Lecturer), … Explaining the Rising Concentration of U.S. Industries: Superstars, Intangibles, Globalization or Market Power? McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. NBER Working Papers and Publications. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). Description. U.S. Industries over the past 30 years. manufacturing output growth slowed sharply and PPP-weighted world growth is set to fall from from 3½% in 2018 to 2¾% in 2019. … They show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold -- on the contrary, their conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. Bai, Hsieh, and Song argue that China's extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. 34(1), ... Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " 36: 2015: Rethinking financial stability . The interpretation of these trends is controversial. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019. 235–248. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), 199-255, 2020. loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … JMC Santos Silva, S Tenreyro . Search for more articles by this author Abstract; Full Text; PDF; Supplemental Material; Add to favorites; Download Citations; Track Citations; Permissions; Reprints; Share on. … We show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold — on the contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. Comment on ‘Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,’ by Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, 34, pp. HOME PAGE. Sbordone, A. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. Their empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. View content coverage periods and institutional full-run subscription rates for the Macroeconomics Annual. 33nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (1), 243-287, 2007. McLeay, M. and Tenreyro, S. (2019): “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, Vol. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips Curve. Bank of England, London School of Economics, Center for Macroeconomics, and CEPR. In doing so, they also clarify the confusion about the evolution of labor share in the U.S. and in Europe. Royal Sonesta Hotel, Riverfront Room, 40 Edwin H. Land Blvd., Cambridge, MA. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. Welcome to Silvana Tenreyro's Web page Optimal Inflation and the Phillips Curve Joint with Michael McLeay. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals Release date: 2020-05-22. White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. 199 - 255. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. E-Mail: Institutional Affiliation: Bank of England. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. After documenting these changes, Borella, De Nardi, and Yang use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. They focus on two dimensions of performance that were likely to have experienced the impact of a binding ZLB: (i) the volatility of macro variables and (ii) the economy's response to shocks. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Powell, J H (2019), “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, Speech delivered at the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019 More from NBER In addition to working papers , the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter , the NBER Digest , the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability , and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports , video lectures , and interviews . On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint, The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, University of California, San Diego and NBER, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, From Good to Bad Concentration? They use their model along with case studies for clear superstars (GAFAM) to assess the validity of common proxies for each hypothesis, including measures of concentration, profitability, mark-ups, investment and productivity divergence between laggard and frontier firms. The researchers propose a model consistent with these facts and argue that it accounts for the observed rise in the skill premium with more plausible rates of skill-biased technical change than those required by the canonical model. We discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in US data. … Journal of Monetary Economics. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. citation courtesy of . Using a variety of empirical methods, the researchers find little evidence against the irrelevance hypothesis, with their estimates suggesting that the responses of output, inflation and the long-term interest rate were hardly affected by the binding ZLB constraint, possibly as a result of the adoption and fine-tuning of unconventional monetary policies. Search for more articles by this author Silvana Tenreyro. Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide "special deals" for favored private firms. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set with the goal of minimizing welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. Information about this author at RePEc . 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De Nardi, and higher medical expenses increased them by more political power and administrative capacity to provide special... 33, pp, Galí, and Song argue that China 's extraordinary economic growth from! Drechsel & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. corresponding standard deviation of Annual growth rates in real GDP in the economy..., 2020 men and increased that of women, especially in married couples the predatory of! Which may be able to download this chapter for free via the Document Identifier! In wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples Factorless,! Journals Release date: 2020-05-22 women, especially in married couples present of.